Nepal’s Agriculture at a Crossroads in the Face of Climate Uncertainty

Climate forecast for 2025: a new reality for farmers

Nepal’s agriculture sector, the backbone of the national economy and the source of livelihood for much of the population, enters 2025 under unprecedented climate uncertainty. Forecasts point to an increase in extreme weather events, characterized by heat waves and prolonged, unpredictable monsoon rains. This new climate reality poses a direct and immediate threat to the traditional farming practices that have shaped the country’s agricultural landscape for centuries. Analysis of climate data confirms a worrying trend: Nepal is among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.¹The country’s average annual temperature is projected to rise by up to 4.2°C by the 2080s under the worst-case emissions scenario, significantly higher than the global average.¹Such changes are already leading to more frequent and intense droughts on the one hand, and devastating floods and landslides on the other. The events of September 2024, when unusually heavy monsoon rains triggered floods and landslides that caused an estimated 17 billion Nepalese rupees (US$126 million) in damage, serve as a stark reminder of the country’s growing vulnerability.⁴These events not only destroy crops and infrastructure, but also undermine the food security and economic stability of millions of Nepalese families.

The Imperative of Adaptation: From Defense to Economic Offensive

In these circumstances, simply responding to climate challenges is no longer enough. A fundamental revision of the country’s agricultural strategy is needed – a shift from defensive measures to proactive economic development based on the principles of climate resilience. A strategic turn to drought-resistant and fast-growing crops is not just a risk-reduction measure, but a powerful tool for economic empowerment of farmers and income security. For a country where agriculture provides employment for the vast majority of the population and is the cornerstone of the economy, adaptation is synonymous with national food and economic security.⁵The adoption of climate-smart crops can transform vulnerability into opportunity, creating resilient agroecosystems that can thrive even in unpredictable climates.

Research Framework: Towards Agricultural Sustainability

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of options for enhancing the resilience of Nepal’s agricultural sector. The first section takes a detailed look at the country’s specific climate vulnerabilities that impact agriculture. The second section provides a detailed overview of the portfolio of drought-tolerant and fast-growing crops with high potential for cultivation in Nepal’s different agro-ecological zones. The third section analyzes the economic feasibility and potential for creating value chains for these crops, which is key to ensuring farmers’ income security. The fourth section examines the existing support ecosystem, from government programs and subsidies to individual farmers’ success stories, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed solutions. The final section formulates policy recommendations for key stakeholders—policymakers, farmer cooperatives, and the private sector—to create an enabling environment for the scale-up of climate-resilient agriculture in Nepal.

Climate Challenge: An Analysis of Agricultural Vulnerabilities in Nepal

This section provides a detailed, evidence-based analysis of the reasons for Nepal’s agricultural sector’s particular vulnerability to climate shocks expected in 2025 and beyond.

A fragile ecosystem under pressure

Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change is systemic and confirmed by international assessments. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Nepal ranks 10th in the world among countries most affected by past climate disasters.¹The ND-GAIN index, which assesses future risks, ranks Nepal 44th in vulnerability and 64th in readiness to adapt, highlighting the gravity of the situation.¹This high vulnerability is due to a unique combination of geographic, environmental and socio-economic factors.

First, the country’s fragile mountain topography is itself a risk factor. The steep slopes of the Himalayas are prone to erosion and landslides, the frequency and severity of which are increased by unpredictable and heavy rainfall.¹Melting of glaciers, accelerated by rising temperatures, is creating dangerous glacial lakes and increasing the risk of outburst floods (GLOFs) that could devastate downstream farmland and communities.

Secondly, Nepal’s hydrological regime, which is entirely dependent on monsoons, is becoming increasingly unstable. Predicted reductions in rainfall in some periods and extreme rainfall in others directly threaten the country’s water balance.¹This is particularly critical for agriculture, as about 75% of all cultivated land in Nepal is rainfed, meaning it relies solely on rainfall.¹Thus, both droughts and floods become regular threats to crop yields and food security.

The precarious situation of major agricultural crops

Nepal’s agricultural sector’s dependence on a few key crops—rice, wheat and maize—creates an additional layer of vulnerability.⁷These crops, which form the basis of the country’s food system, are extremely sensitive to climate fluctuations. Research has convincingly demonstrated a direct correlation between changing weather conditions and reduced yields.

For example, the analysis shows that a rise in average summer temperatures by just 1°C could reduce rice yields by 4,183 kg per hectare.³Given that rice is the staple food crop for most Nepalis, such losses have devastating consequences. Unpredictable rainfall also takes a heavy toll: droughts during the growing season or, conversely, heavy rains during ripening and harvesting lead to significant losses.

The economic consequences of this vulnerability are already evident. Nepal, once a net exporter of rice, now has to import significant quantities of the grain to meet domestic demand.⁸This transformation is a direct consequence of stagnating productivity, exacerbated by climate change, and indicates a systemic crisis of the traditional agricultural model.

Socioeconomic Fractures: Smallholder Farms at the Epicenter

Nepal’s climate crisis is not only an environmental problem, but also a deep socio-economic one, with smallholder farmers at its epicentre. The vast majority of farmers in the country are smallholders engaged in subsistence or semi-commercial farming. Their ability to withstand economic and climate shocks is extremely limited.⁹For such a family, a crop failure caused by drought or flood means not just financial losses, but a direct threat of hunger and poverty.

The World Bank has clearly identified climate variability as a major factor exacerbating poverty and food insecurity in Nepal.⁵This problem also has a pronounced gender dimension. In the context of mass labor migration of men, farming increasingly falls on the shoulders of women. At the same time, women often have limited access to resources – land, credit, technology and education, which makes them even more vulnerable to climate challenges. At the same time, women are becoming key agents of change and adaptation on the ground, which requires special attention when developing support programs.⁶

The analysis thus reveals a critical nexus of vulnerabilities: dependence on climate-sensitive monocultures, mostly grown by poor smallholders in a geographically unstable region, creates a high-risk system. This system is on the verge of collapse under the climate stresses projected for 2025 and beyond. The current agricultural model is fundamentally incompatible with the new climate reality. This is not just a prediction of another bad year, but evidence of a systemic crisis that requires not cosmetic improvements, but a fundamental strategic shift.

A portfolio of sustainable crops for guaranteed income

Moving from problem analysis to solution, this section presents a detailed, evidence-based portfolio of climate-resilient crops suitable for Nepal. The focus is not on general recommendations but on specific, actionable information that can inform decision-making by farmers and agribusinesses.

Reviving Local Superfoods: Millets and Other Small Seed Grains

Millets, which include species such as finger millet (kodo), foxtail millet (kaguno) and common millet, are a group of crops that are ideally suited to Nepal’s changing climate conditions. These grains offer a number of unique agronomic and nutritional benefits.

• Agronomic and climate resistance: Millets are C4 photosynthetic plants, which enable high efficiency in the use of solar energy and water. These crops are exceptionally drought-tolerant and can grow in poor, marginal soils with minimal fertilizer use, making them an ideal choice for rainfed lands in Nepal.¹¹The short growing season (60 to 110 days depending on the variety) allows for flexibility in sowing and harvesting times, which is a key advantage in unpredictable monsoon conditions.¹¹
• Excellent nutritional properties: Millet and its analogues are true “superfoods”. They are rich in protein, fiber, essential minerals (iron, zinc, calcium) and vitamins. Importantly, these grains are gluten-free and have a low glycemic index, which makes them attractive to a growing segment of health-conscious consumers.¹²Branding these crops as “Himalayan Superfoods” could significantly increase their market value.¹³
• Specific varieties recommended by NARC: The most important factor for successful adoption is the availability of proven, adapted varieties. The Hill Crops Research Program (HCRP) of the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) has already recommended specific high-yielding varieties for use. For finger millet, this is Kabre Kodo-1, Kabre Kodo-2, Okhle-1, Dalle-1 and Shailung-1.¹⁵The presence of these varieties proves that the scientific basis for the transition has already been created, and farmers will not have to act blindly.

Champion of the highlands: buckwheat

Buckwheat (locally known as fapar) is another strategically important crop for Nepal, especially in the mountainous and foothill areas.

• Adaptability: Buckwheat is known for its ability to grow in poor, acidic soils and in harsh climates where many other crops fail. Its short growing season allows for harvesting even in the short mountain summers.¹²
• Economic importance and culinary use: Buckwheat has an established market. Its grain is processed into flour, which is used to make traditional dishes such as roti and noodles, providing a ready distribution channel.¹⁷
• NARC Recommended Varieties: Proven varieties recommended by NARC are available to farmers, reducing risks and increasing the chances of success. These includeSweet Phapar-1 (sweet buckwheat), and also Tight Phapar-1 And Tight Phapar-2 (bitter buckwheat), which have their own niches of application.¹⁵

Protein Treasure: Amaranth

Grain amaranth (latte) is a pseudo-cereal crop with outstanding nutritional and agronomic characteristics.

• Sustainability and nutritional value: Amaranth has exceptional drought resistance. Its main feature is the high protein content, which, unlike most cereals, is “complete”, that is, it contains all nine essential amino acids. This makes amaranth an extremely valuable product for combating protein deficiency.¹¹
• NARC registered variety: Availability of officially registered and recommended NARC variety ‘Ramechhap hariyo latte’ confirms that there is a reliable, locally adapted cultivation option for farmers.¹⁵

The fundamental insight of this section is that Nepal has a unique portfolio of indigenous, scientifically proven “supercrops.” These plants are not only resilient to predicted climate shocks, but also nutritionally superior to the traditional grains they can replace. The solution to climate adaptation lies not in importing expensive foreign technologies, but in reviving and scaling up our own agricultural heritage, backed by modern science. The barrier to adoption is not the absence of viable crops, but the lack of awareness, market linkages, and system support to scale up these proven alternatives. This insight shifts the focus from “what to grow?” to “how to make the transition?”

Table 1: Comparative analysis of climate resilient crops for Nepal

Sources:¹¹

From Farm to Market: Economic Feasibility and Value Chain Development

This section directly addresses the “guaranteed income” aspect of the user’s query by providing a business case for switching to alternative crops. Successful adaptation is impossible without a clear understanding of market prospects and the creation of efficient value chains that will allow farmers to earn stable and high profits.

Undeveloped domestic market: import substitution as a guarantee of demand

A key factor that reduces the risks for farmers when switching to new crops is the presence of existing and growing domestic demand. An analysis of Nepal’s trade data reveals a striking fact: the country is a large and growing net importer of millet. From 2009 to 2019, the crop’s import volume increased by an average of 14.62% annually.¹³

This fact is confirmed by the analysis of the Trade Specialization Index (TSI), which for the Nepalese millet market is -0.992.¹³A value close to -1 clearly indicates that the country is a net importer and the market is in the “implementation phase.” This means that domestic production is woefully behind demand, which is met by foreign supplies.

This situation creates a unique opportunity for Nepalese farmers. They do not need to create a new market or convince consumers of the value of their products – the market already exists and actively consumes imported analogues. By switching to growing millet and other alternative crops, local producers get the opportunity for direct import substitution. This provides them with a virtually guaranteed sales market and stable demand, which is the most important condition for obtaining a guaranteed income. The risk of a lack of buyers, which often accompanies the introduction of new agricultural crops, is minimized in this case.

The Value Added Multiplier: From Grain to Delicacy

Maximizing profits for farmers is impossible without developing processing and creating high-value-added products. Raw grain is a low-margin commodity. The real income is generated at the processing, packaging and branding stages.

• Healthy Eating Products: Processing millet, buckwheat and amaranth into flour for gluten-free baking (bread, biscuits), breakfast cereals, muesli and nutrition bars opens up access to the fast-growing health food market in urban centres of Nepal and abroad.¹⁸These products are in demand among health-conscious consumers and people with gluten intolerance.
• Traditional drinks as a niche product: Traditional millet-based alcoholic drinks such asTongba And dance, have great potential as authentic cultural products. They can be positioned as premium drinks for the tourism sector (hotels, restaurants) and for export, attracting connoisseurs of exoticism and cultural heritage.¹⁹
• The Power of the Himalayan Superfoods Brand: Positioning these crops under a single brand such as Himalayan Superfoods is a powerful marketing tool. The brand is associated with eco-friendliness, uniqueness and high nutritional value, which allows for premium pricing and differentiation from competitors.¹³

Building the Value Chain: Investment Opportunities

The current value chain for alternative crops in Nepal is fragmented and underdeveloped. This creates barriers for farmers, but also creates clear investment opportunities for the private sector. Key gaps requiring investment include:

• Infrastructure for storage and processing: The acute shortage of modern elevators, warehouses and processing plants leads to large post-harvest losses and does not allow the creation of products with high added value.²²Investments in the construction of flour mills, extruded product production lines (snacks, breakfasts) and beverage bottling plants are high priority.
• Quality Seed Supply Systems: To ensure high yields, access to certified seeds of NARC-recommended varieties is necessary. The establishment of private seed farms and distribution networks working in partnership with NARC is a promising direction for business.
• Branding and packaging: Creating attractive packaging and a strong brand is key to gaining consumer trust and commanding a premium price. Investments in design services, packaging materials, and marketing campaigns will pay off in higher margins.
• Agrotech platforms: The development of digital platforms that connect farmer cooperatives directly with processors, retailers and end consumers could revolutionize the market. Such platforms provide price transparency, streamline logistics and reduce the number of intermediaries, increasing farmers’ income.

Table 2: Value Added Models for Alternative Crops

Sources:¹⁸

Cultivating Success: An Ecosystem to Support Farmers

The transition to new crops and farming models is impossible without strong and coordinated support. This section analyzes the existing ecosystem, including government programs, financial instruments, and international initiatives, and highlights real success stories that demonstrate the effectiveness of the climate-adapted approach in practice.

Institutional Landscape: Policies and Programs

Nepal has developed a multi-level institutional framework to support agriculture that is increasingly climate resilient.KeyThe players are:

• Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD): The principal government agency responsible for the formulation and implementation of agricultural policy. MoALD oversees major initiatives such as the Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS) and the Prime Minister’s Agricultural Modernization Project (PMAMP) aimed at commercializing and increasing productivity in the sector.²³
• Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC): The leading scientific organization responsible for the development and adaptation of new varieties and technologies. It is NARC that conducts research and recommends climate-resistant varieties of local crops, creating a scientific basis for agricultural transformation.⁷
• International partners: The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) play an important role in funding and providing technical expertise. Their projects, such as the Promoting Climate-Resilient Agriculture and the Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP), aim to introduce best practices and technologies.⁶

These organizations form the basis on which the transition to a new type of agriculture can be built. However, as will be shown below, the existence of programs does not always guarantee their effectiveness on the ground.

Access to finance: subsidies, loans and insurance

For small farmers, access to financial resources is a critical factor. The Government of Nepal and its partners offer several support tools:

• Subsidized loans: Farmers can get loans at a preferential interest rate, which is currently around 3-4%. These loans are intended for the purchase of seeds, fertilizers, equipment and other production needs.²⁹
• Crop insurance: The state subsidizes up to 75% of the insurance premium for crop and livestock insurance, which allows farmers to reduce the risks associated with adverse weather conditions and other disasters.³⁰
• Grants for technology implementation: There are grant programs (often on a co-financing basis) for the purchase of drip irrigation equipment, the construction of greenhouses (polyhouses) and the introduction of other climate-adaptive technologies.²⁹

The implementation gap problem: Despite the existence of these mechanisms, their accessibility to the target audience – small and vulnerable farmers – remains a major challenge. Research points to a “complex bureaucracy, lack of transparency” and high influence of political connections in the distribution of subsidies.²²Often, farmers in remote areas simply do not have information about existing programs or cannot collect the necessary documentation. The requirement for collateral to obtain a loan is also an insurmountable barrier for many who do not have formal property. This creates a paradoxical situation: funds are allocated, but do not reach those who need them most. Thus, the existence of support programs does not guarantee their effectiveness. The critical bottleneck is not the absence of schemes, but the inefficiency and unfairness of their delivery mechanisms.

Proof of concept: success stories on the ground

Despite systemic challenges, there are clear examples of how climate-smart agriculture, when properly supported, can lead to real economic success and empowerment for farmers. These stories provide powerful evidence of the viability of the proposed model.

• Sita Sharma Dhakal (Naumle, Dailekh): This 29-year-old farmer, a participant in the ICIMOD-led GRAPE project, is a shining example of transformation. After receiving training, she implemented a range of climate-smart technologies on her 1.02-hectare plot: a polyhouse, drip irrigation, vermicompost and integrated pest management (IPM). This has enabled her to grow vegetables (tomatoes, cabbage, chillies) all year round and earn a stable monthly income of NPR 30,000-40,000, which fully supports her family and her children’s education. Importantly, Sita has become a local leader, leading several farmer groups and sharing her knowledge with other women in the community.³¹
• Jamuna (Northern Nepal): Jamuna, 45, whose family lived in constant financial insecurity, took part in a project supported by CBM Australia. After 16 weeks of training, she learned climate-smart farming techniques, including the use of plastic tunnels, organic fertilisers and drip irrigation systems. As a result, her vegetable yields increased significantly, which not only provided for her family, but also provided a stable income, improved financial situation and education for her son. Her farm became a hub for knowledge sharing for the entire village.³²
• Kandhari (Bajura): In the remote district of Bajura, Kandhari, with the support of the project, helped establish a women’s farming cooperative. With new farming techniques and access to markets, her vegetable farm is thriving. The income from selling vegetables allows her to pay for her son’s education and support her family. The cooperative has become a platform for women farmers to help each other and share experiences.³³

These stories are not isolated. They demonstrate that the right combination of technology, access to knowledge, and financial support can transform the lives of rural communities from vulnerable victims of climate change to active and successful participants in a new, sustainable agricultural economy.

Strategic recommendations and future prospects

Based on the analysis, this section offers concrete, actionable recommendations for key stakeholders in Nepal’s agricultural sector. The aim of these recommendations is to create an enabling environment for a large-scale transition to climate-resilient agriculture, ensuring food security and income security for farmers.

For Decision Makers (Government of Nepal, MoALD)

• Bridging the implementation gap: The main focus should be on breaking down the barriers between policy and its practical application. The procedures for applying for subsidies and loans need to be radically simplified. Creating a single digital portal (“one-stop shop”) for farmers to obtain all information on support programs, apply, and track their status could significantly improve transparency and accessibility.
• Investments in the value chain: Public investment should be directed not only to primary production, but also to the development of post-harvest infrastructure. It is necessary to allocate targeted funds for the construction of community warehouses, dryers and small processing plants for alternative crops. This will allow farmers to preserve their harvest and create products with high added value.
• Strengthening the Role of NARC: Funding for the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) should be increased to accelerate the development and dissemination of new high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties of millet, buckwheat and amaranth. The network of Farmer Field Schools under NARC should be expanded to provide hands-on training to farmers in new agricultural technologies.
• Promotion of the brand “Himalayan Superfoods”: Launching a nationwide marketing campaign under the brand name ‘Himalayan Superfoods’ is essential to stimulate domestic consumption and create export potential for these nutritious products. The campaign should highlight their health benefits, eco-friendliness and unique Himalayan origin.

For farmers and agricultural cooperatives

• Diversification of crop portfolio: Farmers are advised to gradually diversify their cropping areas, allocating some land to sustainable crops such as millet and buckwheat. This will reduce dependence on risky monocultures and create a “safety cushion” in case of adverse weather conditions for the main grains.
• Creation of commercial cooperatives: Joining together in commercial cooperatives is a key step for small farmers. It allows them to jointly purchase seeds and fertilizers at wholesale prices, gain access to expensive equipment (for example, renting a tractor or combine harvester), and form large batches of produce for sale, which gives them a much better negotiating position with buyers.
• Development of primary processing: Cooperatives can become centers of added value creation. The organization of small processing workshops on the basis of a cooperative – for example, milling grain into flour, cleaning and packing cereals – will allow farmers to receive a significantly larger share of the final retail price of the product.

For investors and agribusiness

• Investments in the processing sector: The existing gap between the production of raw materials and the availability of finished products represents an attractive investment niche. Investments in the creation of modern facilities for the production of gluten-free flour, healthy snacks, nutritional bars and other products from alternative grains have a high potential for profitability, given the growing demand.
• Development of seed production: Partnering with NARC for commercial propagation and distribution of certified seed of recommended varieties is a strategic and profitable endeavor. Establishing a robust seed system is essential for large-scale transition to new crops.
• Creation of agro-technological platforms: Developing digital solutions that connect farmers directly with buyers, providing up-to-date information on market prices, weather forecasts, and agronomic recommendations is a promising venture direction. Such platforms can dramatically improve the efficiency of the entire agri-food system.

Future Prospects

Nepal’s climate challenges are undeniably serious, but they also offer a unique window of opportunity for a profound and positive transformation of the agricultural sector. A strategic pivot to its rich heritage of indigenous, resilient crops such as millet, buckwheat, and amaranth, supported by modern science, smart public policies, and private sector innovation, can transform agriculture from a source of vulnerability to an engine of sustainable development.

This transition is not just an adaptation measure, but a path to building a more resilient, food-independent and economically prosperous nation. Guaranteed income for Nepalese farmers in the conditions of abnormal heat and prolonged rains in 2025 and beyond lies not in maintaining the status quo, but in bold and timely development of those crops that are bestowed by the Himalayan nature itself.

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